I’m not sure why I believed the hype. The Yankees were finished. Hell, Toronto would probably pass them in the standings. And even if they didn’t, surely the Wild Card was coming out of the Central, with Detroit and Chicago duking it out. And that last sentiment was given even more validity when Minnesota suddenly started hitting and Francisco Liriano became the new Pedro, and suddenly it was a three team race in the Central. Now, I didn’t think they were done for the reasons everyone else was giving. Everyone else said Yankees – Matsui – Sheffield = No playoffs. I didn’t necessarily think so, although I will say that both of them are more feared by opposing managers than A-Rod. But still, even without Matsui and Sheff, they still had Jeter, Giambi, Damon, Cano, and that guy A-Rod, who’s only good for about 40-50 homers and about 120 RBIs a season. So the offense wasn’t gonna hurt that much. No, I was thinking about their pitching staff.
The staff was anchored by Mike Mussina, a guy who hated being the ace of a staff. His numbers were great, but beyond him, nothing much else was too scary. Until Chien-Ming Wang began to pitch out of his mind. And continued to do so. Somehow, he became staff ace #2. Even Randy Johnson, who couldn’t seem to realize that he now had a hittable fastball and was unwilling to throw anything else, managed to be consistent enough to not totally diminish what we remembered of him. And somehow, it didn’t matter that their fourth and fifth starters became some strange rotation of Jaret Wright, Sidney Ponson, Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon. They just somehow kept winning, kept staying close to the Red Sox, even while the Sox were raping the best and worst of the National League East.
Then the trade deadline came along. The Yankees pulled off two good deals, somehow shipping off Shawn Chacon and four prospects of whom no one has anything predicted for them, including a number one pick who has fallen off the map, and pulling in Bobby Abreu, Cory Lidle and Craig Wilson. The Red Sox, on the other hand, did nothing, unless you count that Corey dude as a move, and he’s spent most of his Red Sox career in Pawtucket. And on both the national and local airwaves, the rally calls were loud.
“Why didn’t Theo do anything?” “Couldn’t he have done something?” “What about Oswalt? Why not him?” “Why couldn’t we get Abreu?” “Why did we trade for Beckett?” “Why did he trade Arroyo?” “He doesn’t care about this season; he’s giving up on it!”
Well, to find the answer to these questions and statements, we must simply look a little deeper than the surface.
Question #1: Why didn’t Theo do anything?
Well, let’s look at the team as it currently stood. The lineup was the best defensive infield in all of baseball, and wasn’t too shabby in the outfield either (Manny’s not nearly as bad as he’s made out to be). Hittingwise, they were among the best, too. The weakest link was Jason Varitek, and he did enough with the pitching staff to necessitate his presence in the lineup every 4 out of 5 games. The bullpen wasn’t too awful at the time of the deadline; sure, Seanez and Tavarez were absolute failures, but Delcarmen and Hansen had been pitching well, and they had managed to get a few good outings out of guys like Jermaine Van Buren and Javier Lopez. And that Paperbone guy was alright, too. The rotation was by far the weakest point of the staff, however. Schilling was having a comeback year, but was still giving up a few too many runs for an ace of a World Series contender. Josh Beckett somehow won a ton of games, but he was giving up jacks at a record pace (literally; he was on pace to break Blyleven’s record until he decided to just walk everybody), but more on him later. Wakefield was his usual self; 6 IP, 4 ERs about every time out, which is good enough for a #3 or 4 starter, until he got hurt. Clement was a complete disaster before he went on the DL. He couldn’t throw strikes to save his life, and he couldn’t last enough innings to save his pen’s life either. Jon Lester was pitching well enough, but only for 5 innings at most, since he couldn’t help but throw 20 pitches an inning and allow a few too many baserunners, even if he found a way to strand most of them. And with Wells hurt, there was a perpetual rotation of guys in the 5th spot, none of whom were any good.
So we established that the rotation sucked. Still, though, Wells was on his way back, so as long as Schilling stayed consistent, Lester continued to give them 5 quality innings a start, and Beckett figured out a way to keep winning despite his inability to keep the ball in the park, they could take what they could get from Wells and whatever scrubs they trotted out there and hope for the best. So if there was one place they could upgrade, it could be to secure one or two more starters. They could also have used another reliever, although there was a possibility of Keith Foulke coming back.
Now, we have to remember that of the three things one can acquire at the deadline; hitting, starting pitching and bullpen help; starting and relief pitching are by far the hardest to come by. Anything that was available was likely going to come at a high price. The Sox had decent bench depth, so they perhaps could’ve afforded to deal Mike Lowell, Trot Nixon (before he got hurt), Mark Loretta, or even Coco Crisp and settle for Alex Cora or Wily Mo Pena in the lineup everyday, which rubs people in different ways. The problem is, no one was willing to deal any pitchers of value, so any trade involving said hitters likely would’ve resulted in players of less quality than Jeff Suppan. As for the minors, well, everyone of value was already in the majors and playing an important role. There was no Hanley Ramirez or Freddy Sanchez, a hot prospect a few years away from the majors appetizing in a trade. The closest thing was Jacoby Ellsbury, but once again, the return probably wouldn’t be worth what he could become.
The Sox’s most attractive commodity was Jon Lester, who has lofty expectations by most scouts. He might not look like it now, but people are predicting him to be a staff ace in the near future. The problem is, with Wakefield out, he was the Sox’s third best starter. Any deal getting rid of him that didn’t get a pitcher back would only hurt the rotation even more.
So the answer to the overall question comes in the form of the other questions… hopefully, they’ll take less time to answer than this one.
Question #2: Couldn’t he have done something?
Well, here’s the problem: Not really. Look at who changed hands over the deadline. Greg Maddux? Well, he didn’t want to (1) leave the NL and (2) go to the east coast. So that eliminated the Sox from that rout. Cory Lidle? The Phillies knew the only way they could dump Abreu’s salary was to attach a meaningful commodity like Lidle to him. And we’ll touch on why the Sox didn’t want Abreu later. Oliver Perez? As a fantasy owner of him over the last two years, I don’t want any part of him, and I doubt he could help this year. Kyle Lohse? And his 7.07 ERA? I’d rather have Kyle Snyder. Kip Wells? A deal was in place, but the Sox pulled out after some injury questions. And it was a smart move, too, because after one start in Texas, he was on the DL. There were other names being dangled, like Livan Hernandez and Jon Lieber, but both were only offered for high-level prospects, and neither are worth that.
Question #3: What about Oswalt? Why not him?
The offer on the table from the Sox was Coco, Hansen and a prospect to Atlanta, Andruw Jones to Houston, and Roy Oswalt to the Sox. If the Braves accepted, the deal would’ve been a steal for the Sox. But they wanted Lester too. Now, Oswalt isn’t Jeff Suppan, here. He’s a legit ace who could possibly be the best pitcher on the Sox. But the one thing to remember is that trading Hansen and Lester and getting only Oswalt back means that the rotation is still finding two scrubs to pitch every week, and pressure situations in the 7th are now going to Julian Tavarez instead of Hansen. Plus, Coco is now gone, which means your starting right fielder is… Gabe Kapler. Or maybe Eric Hinske. But still, it doesn’t solve that much.
Question #4: Why didn’t we get Abreu?
On the surface, it seems like Abreu could’ve been had easily; the Phillies just wanted to get rid of his contract, and they took some low-level, low-potential players in exchange for him. The major benefit to getting him was also getting Cory Lidle, who could help the rotation. And with Trot Nixon hurt, yeah, Abreu might be a better option in right than Wily Mo Pena. So why didn’t Theo get involved? Well, Bobby’s making a lot of money. Like, $16 million or so next year. And that’s just his paycheck. Not to mention that acquiring him would put the Sox over the luxury tax threshold and would cost them big bucks. Which means that Bobby Abreu, he who has hit about -5 homers since July of 2005, would cost the Sox about $22 million. That’s A-Rod or Manny money. And yeah, Abreu can still hit, he can still steal bases, he can work counts, and even though he’s afraid of walls, he’s a great fielder. But he’s not worth $22 million for a few years. That’s why they were trying to get rid of Manny; now they’d want to get someone of that contract? The Yankees, on the other hand, can afford to do that.
Question #5: Why did we trade for Beckett?
I would kill for the opportunity to pitch a complete game shutout in the clinching game of the World Series in Yankee Stadium as a visiting player. But, in some strange way, that might’ve been the worst thing that could’ve possibly happened to Josh Beckett. Because it was his crowning achievement, and he was only 22 or 23 when he did it, people expected big things from the kid. And he had a few good but injury shortened years, and people saw the fastball and the stuff and they all said “This kid’s gonna be great!”. But what if Josh Beckett isn’t necessarily that great? He’s only 25 or 26, so he’s got a few more years to put it together before he’s expected to hit his prime, but was it really realistic to expect a 20-win, 200 K, 2.50 – 3.00 ERA season? Is this kid really an ace? Or rather, is he capable of being the ace of an American league team in a division where all other four teams have good to great lineups? Maybe he just isn’t. And maybe the Sox overpaid for him, but maybe he’s not gonna be much better than what he is now; a 15-win guy, 160 K’s on the season, 4.50 ERA or so (being generous there). So who knows… maybe this year is just a fluke and he’ll develop that changup and he’ll learn to throw that curve for strikes and he’ll become the guy we want him to be. Or maybe he’ll stay around where he is now. As long as he minimizes the blowouts, which he hasn’t done too often, it might be all we need. And no, Dontrelle Willis wasn’t available at the time for the same price.
Question #6: Why did he trade Arroyo?
Well, it depends on how you ask it. If you ask it “Why did he trade Arroyo?”, the answer is simple. He was the most tradeable player on the Sox in terms of his contract. But if you ask it “Why did he trade Arroyo?”, then you gotta once again look a little deeper. First, you have to look at it like this; they didn’t do it to get rid of Bronson, they did it to bring Wily Mo here. If you look at the future of the Sox’ outfield, it’s mixed signals. You have Manny in left for two more years. Then he’s probably gone. And you have to assume there will be some decline, however minimal, over those two more years. In center, you have Coco Crisp. He’s got potential, even if he’s been a little disappointing this year, but he’s not much of a power hitter. Mostly speed and average. In right, you have Trot Nixon. Now, the fans love Trot, and I’m sure Trot loves it here. And from all accounts, he’d be likely to take a pretty decent hometown discount. But he’s suddenly lost the pop in his bat, and he still misses about 50 games every year, it seems. And with each of those injuries, his fielding range slips a little more. In the minors, you’ve got David Murphy, Brandon Moss and, until the Javy Lopez trade, Adam Stern, all three of whom are good fielders, can hit for a decent average in the minors, and all that, but no power. I hope you’re noticing the trend here. The crown jewel of the minors right now is Ellsbury, whom many compare to Johnny Damon… without the power. In other words, there’s not much power in the pipeline. Even at the other positions, guys like Dustin Pedroia just don’t have that pop. So a guy like Wily Mo Pena, who’s a decent fielder (and can play all three positions) and possibly the most powerful bat in baseball, definitely has a spot on this team; maybe not now, but soon.
Meanwhile, at the start of the season, the Sox were looking at seven starting pitchers; Schilling, Beckett, Clement, Wakefield, Wells, Arroyo and Papelbon. The first odd man out was Papelbon. So he went to the bullpen, possibly for long relief, possibly for setup duty for Foulke. Now we had 6. Wells wasn’t going to the pen. Neither would Clement. So it came down to Wakefield vs Arroyo. And while it’s a good problem to have, the Sox realized that should something happen to one of their starters, they could just plug Papelbon in. So Arroyo became a little expendable. Keep in mind also, Arroyo was consistent, but not necessarily consistently good. He seemed to always go out there, go 6 or 7 innings and give up 4 or 5 runs a day. Didn’t get blown out too often, didn’t dominate too often. Good guy to have, but by no means a number 1, 2 or 3 starter for this team. So of course, he gets traded and starts the year off 9-3 in Cincy, and Papelbon (the supposed backup plan) becomes a near-perfect closer, leading to a thin, innefective rotation rocked by injury and ineffectiveness.
So Arroyo makes the Sox look bad. But the thing is; you have to look at what you got vs what you gave up. And while it looks like you gave up something good, let’s be honest, here; Bronson wasn’t gonna do that in Boston. In Cincy, he routinely faced lineups of Milwaukee, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Houston. St. Louis was the only good lineup in his division, and to be honest, the Mets were the only lineup on par with the better lineups of the AL. Those lineups of the AL? Toronto, New York, Chicago, Detroit, and even Minnesota around now. And for all the Orioles and Devil Rays failures in the pitching and defense part of the game, they both have pretty decent lineups themselves. I think it’s safe to say Arroyo wasn’t going to be 9-3 with an ERA about 2.50 in the AL East. And while he’d be better than Jason Johnson or Kyle Snyder, there’s one other thing you have to look at…
Coco Crisp got hurt early in the season. This was a bad blow to his season, as he never really recovered from it. But it could’ve been much worse for the Sox. If Coco was hurt and Bronson Arroyo was still on the team, you’d be looking at a month of Adam Stern in center. And while Stern would catch everything that hit to him, he’d probably hit close to nothing thrown at him. Could the Sox get another outfielder somewhere else? Doubtful. The Yankees lost two early in the season and have plenty of money, and they couldn’t find anyone outside of their own system. The same with the White Sox, who had to watch Brian Anderson fight the Mendoza line for his first major league season. So in a market with few pitchers, there ended up being even fewer outfielders available. So having Pena around while Crisp was gone was a huge benefit for the first half of the season and cannot be overlooked as to the team’s first half success.
Question #7: He doesn’t care about this season; he’s giving up on it!
Please rephrase that in the form of a question.
Question #7: Why doesn’t he care about this season, and why did he give up on it?
That’s two questions, but that’s okay. The reason can be found way back in November of 2005. After resigning from the GM job, Theo said in his press conference to be patient with the team going forward. And while he was gone, the team traded 30-somethings (Edgar Renteria), idle minor leaguers (Kelly Shoppach) and very young prospects (Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez) and got 25-year old rising stars like Beckett and Crisp; guys who can contribute now, but also have at least 7 more years of peak performance left in them. Unlike the Yankees, who want to Win Now, Win Now, Win Now, the Red Sox set out with an agenda to develop for the future while remaining competitive in the present to keep those ticket and merchandise dollars coming in.
And that’s where this long and winding road leads us. There’s a reason most teams don’t go for that strategy; it’s fucking hard to do. The A’s are alright at it, but they can only produce ALDS-caliber teams every year, and they can’t improve on that because they can’t keep anyone. And the Sox ran into trouble when Crisp got hurt and couldn’t come back effectively, and even more when Beckett didn’t become the ace we (unfairly?) thought he would become. And since Papelbon became such an effective closer, combined with Keith Foulke’s second consecutive dissapearing act, the rotation thinned out as well. So the Sox could’ve traded Lester for Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle, but is the team really better off in 2007, 2008, or 2009?
So you know what? Maybe the season’s dead and done for. The Yankees just came in, with their supposedly crippled lineup, and piled on runs. And while there’s still about a month left, and anything can happen in that time, things don’t look too good. But you can look at this trading deadline and see the names that didn’t leave, and you can at least look forward to the next few years, where hopefully Jon Lester grows into an ace, Josh Beckett rights the ship, Craig Hansen becomes good enough to close, Papelbon becomes just as effective as a starter, Coco returns to his .315 hitting self, and Wily Mo develops into a .290/35/100-type player. At that point, all of this will seem worth it. Trust me.
And the fact that I didn’t mention David Ortiz once in this entire column has nothing to do with the fact that he should be the MVP of the AL, no question. Manny helps, but without Ortiz, this team is look up at Toronto.